I prefer to run scared through here. I think that if the Chinese stop buying our debt, it is virtually the end of the financial world as we know it. The conventional thinking is that they will continue buying. But I don‟t think it’s logical to assume somebody will continue to buy our paper which declines in value. Our dollar is declining in value, and it’s been pretty shocking over the last four or five months. The politicians who are so tough on businessmen and so critical – they and the Federal Reserve caused us to be in this predicament. What really caused me to predict the problems we had in 2007 and 2008 was that we were spending so much and no one was balancing the budget. No family can keep doing that forever, no corporation can keep doing that forever and no nation can continue doing that forever. We did it on all three fronts – and it blew up in our face.Robertson speaks of what happens if/when the US can no longer depend on the “kindness of strangers” to fund our deficits. If/when our benefactors stop lending us money, both Treasury bonds and the US currency will collapse. As he alludes , bonds and currency are merely symptoms of underlying problems. While many believe that Blanche du Bois (the United States) will be able to bypass what Robertson fears because strangers will continue to support us, I do not. Furthermore, unless and until we remedy the underlying problems (government spending that cannot be supported by taxes, weakness in the private sector, etc.), this threat looms ever larger with the passage of time. At this point, there are no signs of the US even addressing these problems. Government projections (probably highly optimistic) for the remainder of this decade show deficits 2-3 times larger than any prior to last year.
Our kind strangers are not altruists, have their own needs for funds and their own political/national objectives. The frightening part of this entire situation is that we literally have no control over the short-term outcome. We have lost most of our economic clout, are viewed as profligate and probably have lost much of our political clout. We appear to be following the path of Britain when it lost its world leadership. Whether we fall to what arguably approached third-world nation status for Britain before recovering to a much smaller role in the world or not is moot. Our role as economic leader appears to be quickly slipping away. Even so, geopolitically we will remain relevant so long as we are in possession of ICBMs, sort of like Russia today but without the natural resources.
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