Tuesday, April 3, 2012

Smooth transition in markets

Below is today’s press release from the Fed. I have emboldened a couple of key statements.
“With substantial resource slack likely to continue to dampen cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable, the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time.” While this statement may be true (probably less so than we are led to believe) at the moment, ignore it. It is a “CYA” statement that provides cover for the Fed to continue pumping the economy. This statement or its equivalent will probably be in the Fed’s statement until a month or two before rampant inflation is obvious to everyone.
“The amount of agency debt purchases, while somewhat less than the previously announced maximum of $200 billion, is consistent with the recent path of purchases and reflects the limited availability of agency debt. In order to promote a smooth transition in markets, the Committee will gradually slow the pace of its purchases of both agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities and anticipates that these transactions will be executed by the end of the first quarter of 2010.” This statement is inconsistent with the prior statement. It is either untrue or a diversion. There is no “smooth transition in markets” possible. While it might be possible that the Fed does actually honor this statement in a strict sense, they will merely shift their pumping to a different vehicle. To stop pumping now would mean a collapse of the mortgage market and the economy that will result in a Great Depression.
It is difficult to discern whether the Fed is merely being duplicitous or just plain wrong in their reading of the economy. After all, they have a pretty good track record for both.
If you believe what is in the statement, then I would get out of the stock market immediately. If not, then it is possible that the financial market fantasy can continue for awhile. Regardless of which you believe, be very careful. For me, I want no part in long positions in traditional stocks or bonds. This Ponzi scheme cannot go on much longer.

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